More than any other sport betting on golf requires an understanding of the psychological makeup of the golfer. This most simple of games can become highly complex and cruel and nigh on impossible when attempted by an individual under pressure.

For the past four years I have advised my private clients to back Graham McDowell to win the Open Championship in the outright market on the exchanges. On all four occasions he has featured high up the leader board after two rounds in fact on two occasions he has led. This has led to a massive contraction in his price to 16/1 or 12/1 from an opening 100/1 plus. Well done you I hear you cry but my selection on each of the four years came with a vital caveat it was that after round two they should lay the whole lot off not half of it or three quarters to leave a free three figure bet but the whole flaming lot. On each of the four years poor old Gmac has finished nowhere out with the proverbial washing.

I give you this example not to claim any Freudian powers of insight in to the man merely to show that golfers are creatures of habit more than any other sportsmen. Think about it Gmac (don’t complain he asks to be called it) is a tremendous talent he would not be able to lead after two rounds if he were not would he? In order for my bet to succeed he must be capable of and produce amazing golf for 36 holes or there would be no huge price contraction. So what happens, I think he stops playing the course and starts to think about what he is about to possibly achieve think about it what other sport requires you to be in the field of play for four hours constantly trying to stay still and RELAX, not easy.

I am certainly not suggesting he is a coward far from it but he cannot win  a major from the front his scores have on average slipped by 4 to 5 shots on the weekend of the open every time every year.

I try to do this with approximately five players in each major that’s twenty players a year and it has worked for five years now  ( Kenny Perry in the masters had me behind the sofa but came through in the end). So the trick is look through the stats look for the patterns and trust your judgement.

To cheer all Gmac fans I will finish with a roadmap for him to break the hoodoo and that is bizarrely for him to have a rotten tee time on the first day and have a bad start Then just about make the cut still thinking he has no chance. This tardy start is followed by a reasonable Saturday leaving him six off the pace; he goes out mid morning on the Sunday still playing for Ryder cup points and shoots the lights out while the leaders with all the pressure are just starting out. If you think this is a fairytale just visit the St Andrews site and look up the course record holder yes it is one Graham MacDowell! Maybe just maybe.